Thursday, April 23, 2020

Seeking Alpha - A Deep Dive Into Crude Oil's New Black Monday

Summary

  • Crude oil's decline into deeply negative territory was triggered by the expiration of May WTI contracts.
  • Going into Monday, there was an immense buildup of speculative owners who could not take physical delivery and a lack of commercial buyers due to the COVID glut.
  • Prices will likely return to $20-$25, but USO should be avoided due to its extreme roll-cost.
  • Crude oil producers are a better way to bet on higher oil, but the best bet seems to be tankers with storage capacity.
  • Global oil production may decline to oil demand due to low prices and COVID work furloughs.

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