The forced oil production shutdowns and the extension of the generous OPEC+ voluntary cuts into July will not only balance the Covid-19-hit global crude and condensate demand, but are deep enough to create a monthly deficit starting from June 2020 and continuing uninterrupted until at least the end of next year, a Rystad Energy analysis shows.
The oversupply, which sent WTI oil prices into the negative earlier this year, is a thing of the past as long as OPEC+ compliance stays strong and the oil demand recovery trajectory isn’t radically altered. The last surplus month appears to have been May, when crude and condensate production exceeded demand by about 6.1 million barrels per day (bpd).
June is now already set for a global production deficit of about 1.5 million bpd. The imbalance is forecast to reach 4.6 million bpd in July, 4.2 million bpd in August and, after being reduced a little during the remainder of 2020, peak at 5.2 million bpd in January 2021. Although the shortfall will ease after that, Rystad Energy estimates that monthly deficits will remain throughout next year.
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/glut-no-more-fresh-opec-cuts-point-to-crude-and-condensate-supply-deficits-through-2021/
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