Thursday, July 16, 2020

Seeking Alpha - Saudi Arabia Dead Serious About Pushing Oil Prices Higher

Summary
  • The media outlets are botching the OPEC+ agreement to taper cuts.
  • Saudi's crude exports for August will be the same, so despite cuts being tapered, overall supplies will likely remain the same.
  • Noncompliant producers have to also make up for the noncompliance in August and September, making headline cuts larger.
  • Saudi Arabia will be only exporting ~5 mb/d in July, and with guidance from ABS that August will be the same, global crude exports will remain depressed.
  • With global oil inventories starting to accelerate lower, energy stocks also have broken out.

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