World Oil - Impact of Covid-19 on oil supply, demand and price to 2030
The petroleum industry is undergoing an unprecedented demand disruption and requires accurate forecasting and real-world economic models to maximize profitability. To accomplish the objective, an analysis was prepared, using a proprietary global petroleum model that combines geopolitical and macro-economic scenarios to generate quantitative outcomes for:
- GDP growth
- Crude oil/natural gas supply and demand
- Oil price.
The model is underpinned by proprietary global databases of oil and gas fields, global potential of exploration, light tight shale oil (LTO) and shale gas basins.
SCENARIOS
Two representative scenarios from a set are presented below. These focus on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The scenario models generate crude oil, NGL and natural gas supply, demand and price outcomes for:
- Optimistic case: one wave of Covid-19 pandemic with rapid “V” shaped economic recovery.
- Pessimistic (realistic?) case: two-wave pandemic, extending into Q2 2021 with a slow economic rebound.
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