- IEA's oil market report was released yesterday suggesting a Q4 2020 market deficit of 4.1 mb/d.
- Excess oil inventories for OECD is pegged at 209.1 million barrels. This means that the deficit in Q4 will eliminate all of the surpluses and more.
- In addition, we have US oil production materially lower than IEA's ~11 mb/d average for Q4, which means there's potentially more draws ahead.
- Now all of this is also hinged on demand returning to average ~96.1 mb/d for Q4, so this remains the largest variable to get right.
- So unless IEA can't do math or something goes awfully wrong, it does appear that the excess oil inventories should be eliminated by year-end.
Friday, October 16, 2020
HFIR - Implied IEA Oil Supply And Demand Balance Suggests No Excess Inventories By Year End
Summary
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment