EIA: Short-term energy outlook remains subject to high uncertainty

The US Energy Information Administration’s September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because mitigation and reopening efforts related to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continue to evolve.

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $45/bbl in August, up $2/bbl from the average in July and up $26/bbl from the multiyear low monthly average price in April. The increase in oil prices has occurred as EIA estimates global oil markets have shifted from global liquid fuels inventories building at a rate of 7.2 million b/d in the second quarter to drawing at a rate of 3.7 million b/d in the third quarter.

https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/article/14183070/eia-shortterm-energy-outlook-remains-subject-to-high-uncertainty

EIA - EIA raises its 2020 crude oil price forecast in the June STEO

Brent crude oil prices rose in May, reflecting a tightening in the global oil market balance. Initial data show that increased global oil demand and a high adherence to production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+) drove the price increase. In the June 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $37 per barrel (b) in the second half of 2020, up from a forecast of $32/b in the May STEO (Figure 1). EIA forecasts that the price of Brent crude oil will average $48/b in 2021—unchanged from the May STEO forecast. Forecast rising crude oil prices reflect an expectation of declining global crude oil inventories in the second half of 2020 and in 2021. EIA expects that high inventory levels and ample spare crude oil production capacity will limit upward price pressures in the coming months, but as inventories decline into 2021, those upward price pressures will increase.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/