Seeking Alpha - Higher Oil Supplies Will Never Make It To The Market, Global Production Shut-In Is Coming

Summary

• Paper barrels are one thing while physical barrels are another.
• Global supply shut-ins will happen long before storage levels at consumer nations hit tank top (think US here).
• With demand estimated to fall 10 to 20 mb/d in April, refineries already are cutting throughput by 10 mb/d. This, in turn, reduces crude buying by at least 10 mb/d.
• As a result, April global crude exports are going to tank, and the Saudis won't even be able to sell any additional oil into this market environment to begin with.
• Canada is a great real-time example of this. In April, Canadian oil production will fall ~10% or between 400k to 500k b/d. This is why it's far more likely that shut-ins happen globally at the producer level rather than at tank-top in consumer nations.

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