- A discussion on US oil production often falls into two extreme camps.
- The truth is often something in between, but because of a fundamental change in how credit is going to be provided for US shale producers going forward, it's crippled for life.
- There also are enormous implications for inflation. Since 2010, US oil production has been the key growth driver in the non-OPEC group.
- With US shale oil crippled, this source of growth is gone, and as a result, will result in much higher oil prices going forward, which will boost inflation.
Monday, August 31, 2020
Seeking Alpha - The Death Of U.S. Shale Is Greatly Exaggerated, But It's Crippled For Life
Summary
Sunday, August 30, 2020
Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count - August 28 2020
The Baker Hughes US Land Rig Count was flat this week compared to last weeek, with 240 active rigs in the US. The Permian Basin lost 2 rigs, the Eagle Ford lost 1 rig and the ArkLaTex region added 3 rigs. All of the other regions remained flat.
I've been hearing alot of discussions about how US production will remain flat next year and grow in 2022. In order for that to happen, there has a be a signficant rebound in rig count and active frac fleets. If we want US Production to remain above 11 million BOPD, then rig count is going to have to grow back to 800 rigs and we will need more than 200 active frac fleets. I'm not sure how we get there at today's prices, but that's where we need to go.
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| Figure 1: Baker Hughes US Land Weekly Rig Count - August 28 2020 (Source: Baker Hughes) |
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| Table 1: Baker Hughes US Land Weekly Rig Count - August 28 2020 (Source: Baker Hughes) |
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| Table 2: Baker Hughes US Land Weekly Rig Count - August 28 2020 (Source: Baker Hughes) |
Friday, August 28, 2020
OilPrice.com - Why Shale Executives Should Jump On The ESG Trend Now
ESG (Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance), like pretty much everything else in this increasingly partisan world, has become an extremely divisive topic in the business sector. While many think that more socially and environmentally conscious investment and business practices are the best way forward and a central pillar of the future global economy, others dismiss it as leftist and utopian. While some argue that ESG is an inevitable trend (accelerated by the novel coronavirus’ interruption to business as usual), the Trump administration has threatened to make it illegal. A new proposed regulation from the U.S. Department of Labor would expressly prohibit the department from including ESG in any decision-making criteria when it comes to U.S. employer-provided pension funds, in an apparent bid to protect Big Oil.
Thursday, August 27, 2020
Rystad Energy - Even at $40 WTI, about 150 more North American E&Ps will need Chapter 11 protection by end-2022
The Covid-19 pandemic has added severe financial strain on a North American upstream industry that was already reeling under billions of dollars of debt. With WTI climbing past $40 a barrel, most exploration and production firms (E&Ps) have been able to keep their head above water, but unless prices strengthen further about 150 more E&Ps will need to seek Chapter 11 protection through 2022, a Rystad Energy analysis shows.
So far this year, according to Haynes & Boone, 32 E&Ps have already filed for Chapter 11, recording a cumulative debt of about $40 billion. On the oilfield services (OFS) front, 25 companies have filed for Chapter 11. If WTI remains at $40, Rystad Energy estimates 29 more E&P Chapter 11 filings this year, adding another $26 billion of debt at risk.
So far this year, according to Haynes & Boone, 32 E&Ps have already filed for Chapter 11, recording a cumulative debt of about $40 billion. On the oilfield services (OFS) front, 25 companies have filed for Chapter 11. If WTI remains at $40, Rystad Energy estimates 29 more E&P Chapter 11 filings this year, adding another $26 billion of debt at risk.
World OIl - Major forecasters agree: No oil demand recovery until at least 2022
LONDON (Bloomberg) --Global oil demand won’t return to 2019 levels until at least 2022 and the gap may be getting wider than it seemed a month ago.
All three of the world’s main oil forecasting agencies — the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries — published new quarterly forecasts this week and none project oil demand back at 2019 levels by the end of next year.
BTU Analytics - Montage Acreage Provides Southwestern Optionality in SW Appalachia
While many in the market have been focused on what consolidation will come in the major oil plays as a result of the pandemic-driven low oil prices, such as from the Chevron-Noble acquisition, gas producers have also made moves to better position themselves in a low liquids price environment. Most recently, Southwestern announced that it would acquire Montage Resources in an all-stock deal. In addition to making the combined entity the third largest Northeast producer, the Montage assets give Southwestern greater optionality in its SW Appalachia acreage to choose between dry gas acreage when liquids pricing is low and wet gas acreage when liquids pricing is high. This optionality is key at a time when liquids pricing is expected to remain pressured as the world recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic and its resulting impacts to hydrocarbon demand. Today’s energy market commentary will utilize BTU Analytics E&P Positioning Report to analyze Southwestern and Montages acreage and the flexibility afforded to Southwestern by the acquisition.
Saturday, August 22, 2020
In a complete reversal of the downward trend since March, the Baker Hughes US Land Weekly Rig Count was up 10 rigs this week. The Permian added 10 rigs this week, reversing their downward trend also. The ArkLaTex added 1 rig while the Bakken and Eagle Ford each lost a rig.
While this is positive news for the industry, we should expect many ups and downs through out the coming months as we work through the downturn. Many forecasts discuss flat US production for 2021. For that to happen, both the rig count and frac fleet count will have ti increase significantly.
Figure 1: Baker Hughes US Land Weekly Rig Count - August 21 2020
(Source: Baker Hughes)
Table 1: Baker Hughes US Land Weekly Rig Count - August 21 2020
(Source: Baker Hughes)
Table 2: Baker Hughes US Land Weekly Rig Count - August 21 2020
(Source: Baker Hughes)
Monday, August 17, 2020
Seeking Alpha - WTI: The Prospects For Oil In The Second Half Of 2020
Summary
- Oil will soon make a move out of its current $40-$43 trading range higher due to a lack of drilling activity to replace bbls lost to decline.
- It's more a matter of when than if.
- We see U.S production falling to ~7-8 mm BOEPD by year's end.
Seeking Alpha - A Contrarian View On U.S. Oil Production
Summary
- Our contrarian view on US oil production is that the rebound observed in July and August so far is way higher than what the consensus is estimating.
- With all of the shut-in production returning, US oil production is expected to peak at ~11.7 mb/d in August.
- Monthly basin decline rates at today's completion activity level is ~260k b/d.
- By year-end, this will push US oil production down to ~10.7 mb/d.
- If frac spread count doesn't rebound to 175+ by Q1 2021, then US oil production will fall to low ~10 mb/d.
Rystad Energy - US shut-in oil comes back: Most curtailed output is set to return by the end of August
Most US onshore operators will restore nearly all shut-in oil volumes by the end of the third quarter, with only a handful maintaining some level of curtailment for the rest of the year, a Rystad Energy analysis of 25 public oil operators’ second-quarter earnings statements shows.
Curtailments from the 25 companies peaked in May with a net 772,500 barrels per day (gross – including royalties to the government - 965,600 bpd) taken off the market. Total cuts decreased to a net 680,300 bpd in June. In July, only about 306,500 bpd in net volumes (383,100 bpd gross) remained curtailed. This number is expected to fall to a net 74,300 bpd (92,900 bpd gross) in August, with nearly all production set to be reactivated by September and just a small amount remaining offline.
http://communications.rystadenergy.com/acton/rif/12327/s-0dd9-2008/-/l-0ac8:295/l-0ac8/showPreparedMessage?sid=TV2:59uFtis2b
Curtailments from the 25 companies peaked in May with a net 772,500 barrels per day (gross – including royalties to the government - 965,600 bpd) taken off the market. Total cuts decreased to a net 680,300 bpd in June. In July, only about 306,500 bpd in net volumes (383,100 bpd gross) remained curtailed. This number is expected to fall to a net 74,300 bpd (92,900 bpd gross) in August, with nearly all production set to be reactivated by September and just a small amount remaining offline.
http://communications.rystadenergy.com/acton/rif/12327/s-0dd9-2008/-/l-0ac8:295/l-0ac8/showPreparedMessage?sid=TV2:59uFtis2b
Friday, August 14, 2020
Baker Hughes US Land Weekly Rig Count - August 14 2020
The Baker Hughes US Land rig count continued to slide this week, down 5 rigs to 230 active rigs. The Permian Basin dropped 5 rigs (4 from Texas and 1 from New Mexico) while the other areas remained stable. One of the reasons behind the drop in Permian rig count is that the larger operators (in particular ExxonMobil) have been slower to react to the current market conditions with rig count reductions. I read an article earlier this week that ExxonMobil still had >25 rigs active and they were planning to get down to 15 rigs before the end of the year.
On the brighter side, there appears to be a lot more discussion about restarting operations. I have seen a couple of articles/reports discussing the potential for under supply in the midterm. Hopefully rig additions by other operators can offset the rig reductions by the larger operators like Exxon Mobil.
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| Figure 1: Baker Hughes US Land Weekly Rig Count - August 14 2020 (Source: Baker Hughes) |
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| Table 1: Baker Hughes US Land Weekly Rig Count - August 14 2020 (Source: Baker Hughes) |
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| Table 2: Baker Hughes US Land Weekly Rig Count - August 14 2020 (Source: Baker Hughes) |
Thursday, August 13, 2020
Rystad Energy - US permits for new horizontal drilling dip to 10-year low, hinting no strong rebound in 2020 activity
US horizontal drilling activity in oil basins, which has plummeted due to the Covid-19 pandemic, is not likely to materially recover this year, a new Rystad Energy analysis shows. Drilling permits, which are increasingly reliable indicators of future activity levels, dipped to a 10-year monthly low this July, with only 454 awards.
July’s drilling permits number is the lowest since September 2010, when horizontal permits in oil basins amounted to 438. But unlike the current situation, activity then was on the increase, while the current downturn is still under way. Comparing to the previous downturn, the lowest count was in January 2016, when only 622 permits were awarded.
Drilling permits have generally been viewed as low quality predictors of future drilling activity, as operators have a tendency to overbuild their inventory of permits. However, the quality of predictions based on permits has improved considerably, as producers have become more disciplined in the current capital environment and market downturn.
July’s drilling permits number is the lowest since September 2010, when horizontal permits in oil basins amounted to 438. But unlike the current situation, activity then was on the increase, while the current downturn is still under way. Comparing to the previous downturn, the lowest count was in January 2016, when only 622 permits were awarded.
Drilling permits have generally been viewed as low quality predictors of future drilling activity, as operators have a tendency to overbuild their inventory of permits. However, the quality of predictions based on permits has improved considerably, as producers have become more disciplined in the current capital environment and market downturn.
World Oil - Impact of Covid-19 on oil supply, demand and price to 2030
The petroleum industry is undergoing an unprecedented demand disruption and requires accurate forecasting and real-world economic models to maximize profitability. To accomplish the objective, an analysis was prepared, using a proprietary global petroleum model that combines geopolitical and macro-economic scenarios to generate quantitative outcomes for:
SCENARIOS
Two representative scenarios from a set are presented below. These focus on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The scenario models generate crude oil, NGL and natural gas supply, demand and price outcomes for:
- GDP growth
- Crude oil/natural gas supply and demand
- Oil price.
SCENARIOS
Two representative scenarios from a set are presented below. These focus on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The scenario models generate crude oil, NGL and natural gas supply, demand and price outcomes for:
- Optimistic case: one wave of Covid-19 pandemic with rapid “V” shaped economic recovery.
- Pessimistic (realistic?) case: two-wave pandemic, extending into Q2 2021 with a slow economic rebound.
Reuters - How a Texas shale supplier's founders made fortunes as the firm failed
Aug 13 (Reuters) - On July 7, the board of directors at Texas fracking sand supplier Hi-Crush granted nearly $3 million in bonuses to four top executives, including $1.35 million for CEO and founder Robert Rasmus.
Five days later, the company declared bankruptcy.
The payout marked the latest in a series of board decisions that allowed the oilfield supplier’s top executives and founders to rake in tens of millions of dollars as shareholders saw the stock price plummet to pennies.
Five days later, the company declared bankruptcy.
The payout marked the latest in a series of board decisions that allowed the oilfield supplier’s top executives and founders to rake in tens of millions of dollars as shareholders saw the stock price plummet to pennies.
Wednesday, August 12, 2020
OilPrice.com - Here’s How Oil Could Skyrocket By 138%
The market is gradually beginning to give credence to something I've been discussing in past OilPrice articles for a long time now. In a June, 2020 article entitled, Underinvestment Could Send Oil Prices Soaring, I argued how the retrenchment and lack of capital investment the industry has seen the past five-years would lead to shortages of crude eventually. The huge volume of Saudi overproduction exacerbated the equal largess in American shale for the past couple of years, and led to a glut of crude globally.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Heres-How-Oil-Could-Skyrocket-By-138.html
Rystad Energy - Covid-19 pushes OFS headcount to lowest level in over a decade, revenue per employee set to decline
The oil market turmoil brought on by Covid-19 has led to lower-than-anticipated activity and delayed projects, forcing the industry to deploy cost-cutting measures. A Rystad Energy analysis of the top 50 oilfield service (OFS) firms shows that staffing is set to reach its lowest level in more than 10 years, with the anticipated revenue per employee also declining towards the previous downturn’s level.
Rystad Energy tracks the permanent employee count of the top service companies, including reported permanent employees at year-end. Our analysis shows that the reduced staff levels in the OFS industry seen in 2016, after the previous downturn, have mostly been maintained since then at just over 760,000 employees, keeping a major cost driver – investment in human capital – at steady low levels.
However, the downsizing expected this year is likely to result in the OFS industry experiencing the lowest total headcount in over a decade, which we estimate will amount to about 610,000 employees.
Rystad Energy tracks the permanent employee count of the top service companies, including reported permanent employees at year-end. Our analysis shows that the reduced staff levels in the OFS industry seen in 2016, after the previous downturn, have mostly been maintained since then at just over 760,000 employees, keeping a major cost driver – investment in human capital – at steady low levels.
However, the downsizing expected this year is likely to result in the OFS industry experiencing the lowest total headcount in over a decade, which we estimate will amount to about 610,000 employees.
Monday, August 10, 2020
World Oil - Funding for shale drillers dries up as lenders leave the sector
NEW YORK (Bloomberg) --One of the key sources of funding for American shale is evaporating, just as the the sector needs it more than ever.
Banks lending against the oil and natural gas reserves of hundreds of independent U.S. drilling companies have pulled back from the sector at an unprecedented rate this year after energy prices slumped. There’s every indication they’re not done: Many in the industry expect further reductions to credit facilities in the fall, with higher costs and more stringent protections for lenders.
All that comes at a time that could scarcely be more challenging for shale. Weakened by poor returns to shareholders, it was getting shut out of the bond and equity markets even before the Covid-19 pandemic decimated global demand. With crude prices staging a limited recovery in the last two months to around $40 a barrel, shale operators face an uncertain future, one where they must to drill to generate cash flow while facing a higher cost of capital.
“As long as oil prices stay at $40 or less and gas stays at $2 or less, I think banks are going to continue to be very cautious and continue to pull back,” said Spencer Cutter, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “It’ll be the end of shale if oil stays below $40.”
Banks lending against the oil and natural gas reserves of hundreds of independent U.S. drilling companies have pulled back from the sector at an unprecedented rate this year after energy prices slumped. There’s every indication they’re not done: Many in the industry expect further reductions to credit facilities in the fall, with higher costs and more stringent protections for lenders.
All that comes at a time that could scarcely be more challenging for shale. Weakened by poor returns to shareholders, it was getting shut out of the bond and equity markets even before the Covid-19 pandemic decimated global demand. With crude prices staging a limited recovery in the last two months to around $40 a barrel, shale operators face an uncertain future, one where they must to drill to generate cash flow while facing a higher cost of capital.
“As long as oil prices stay at $40 or less and gas stays at $2 or less, I think banks are going to continue to be very cautious and continue to pull back,” said Spencer Cutter, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “It’ll be the end of shale if oil stays below $40.”
World Oil - Shale drillers plan for maintenance, not growth, as oil prices stall
HOUSTON (Bloomberg) --America’s most prolific shale drillers are accepting a fate once anathema to an industry obsessed with growth: Drilling just to ward off production drops.
The pandemic and subsequent plunge in crude prices has forced U.S. crude explorers to scrap plans to expand supplies amid investor skepticism toward the shale business model. For some of the biggest names in the Permian, that’s meant vowing restraint as long as oil lingers at levels too poor to justify a new boom.
The pledges also come on the heels of the worst crude crash in the 161-year history of the petroleum industry. Explorers are disclosing just how deeply their balance sheets were wounded by a quarter that included the heretofore unheard-of phenomenon of negative prices.
“These guys have all just had a near-death experience,” said Raoul LeBlanc, an analyst at IHS Markit Ltd. “It will take some time to get themselves back in a a better position.”
The pandemic and subsequent plunge in crude prices has forced U.S. crude explorers to scrap plans to expand supplies amid investor skepticism toward the shale business model. For some of the biggest names in the Permian, that’s meant vowing restraint as long as oil lingers at levels too poor to justify a new boom.
The pledges also come on the heels of the worst crude crash in the 161-year history of the petroleum industry. Explorers are disclosing just how deeply their balance sheets were wounded by a quarter that included the heretofore unheard-of phenomenon of negative prices.
“These guys have all just had a near-death experience,” said Raoul LeBlanc, an analyst at IHS Markit Ltd. “It will take some time to get themselves back in a a better position.”
BTU Analytics - COVID-19 Puts Wave 2 LNG in Jeopardy
Just under a year ago, BTU Analytics released Getting to the Gulf, an in-depth analysis of Wave 2 LNG facilities and the potential infrastructure bottlenecks that could hinder growth. At the time, US LNG demand had been on a steady upward trend with feedgas deliveries growing over 90% in 2019. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately hit US LNG exports and as a result significantly altered the trajectory of US LNG forecasts. In today’s Energy Market Insight, BTU Analytics revisits Wave 2 LNG facilities’ progress, or lack thereof, that could put Wave 2 LNG in jeopardy.
Friday, August 7, 2020
Baker Hughes US Land Weekly Rig Count - August 7 2020
After 1 week of stabilized rig count, the US Land rig count returned to a decline, losing 4 rigs week on week. The Baker Hughes Rig Count for US Land showed 235 active rigs. The Permian lost 2 rigs, the Eagle Ford lost 1 rig and Mississippi drop it's only rig.
We should expect the rig count to bump along the bottom for the next several weeks. As quarterly results continue to be released, we should have a much better idea about activity for the remainder of 2020. The one metric I will be watching closely is the amount of CapEx spent in the first half of 2020 and the amount remaining for the second half of 2020.
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| Figure 1: Baker Hughes US Land Weekly Rig Count - August 7 2020 (Source: Baker Hughes) |
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| Table 1: Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count - August 7 2020 (Source: Baker Hughes) |
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| Table 2: Baker Hughes US Land Weekly Rig Count - August 7 2020 (Source: Baker Hughes) |
Thursday, August 6, 2020
Mike Shellman - The Responsibility of Influence
I do not pretest to be anybody other than a dumbass roughneck who has drilled and completed LOTS of wells with his own money. I don't have a college degree nor initials to put after my name, but after 45 years I do understand well economics and how to manage oil and gas production.
My counterpart's credentials are those of great influence across America, as a keynote speaker, a frequent podcast participant, a guest on cable net news networks and someone who when speaks, people listen...including the President of the United States, I'm sure. I respect this gentleman's contributions to my industry and the fact that he made an absolute killing when he sold his data sell company at the height of the shale oil phenomena.
So, how many HZ shale oil wells actually pay out in a year and get to 140% ROI at $40 WTI in America?
https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/2020/08/01/The-Responsiblity-of-Influence
My counterpart's credentials are those of great influence across America, as a keynote speaker, a frequent podcast participant, a guest on cable net news networks and someone who when speaks, people listen...including the President of the United States, I'm sure. I respect this gentleman's contributions to my industry and the fact that he made an absolute killing when he sold his data sell company at the height of the shale oil phenomena.
So, how many HZ shale oil wells actually pay out in a year and get to 140% ROI at $40 WTI in America?
https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/2020/08/01/The-Responsiblity-of-Influence
Wednesday, August 5, 2020
BTU Analytics - 1.8 MMb/d Permian Production Potential from DUCs
As operators continue to grapple with a $40/bbl oil price environment, many are looking for ways to balance declining production with capital expenditures. In the Permian, a familiar, but perhaps currently under-emphasized story of DUCs and excess backlog has the potential to play a significant role. As oil prices began to rapidly deteriorate in March, operators responded quickly and both completions and drilling activity fell precipitously. However, completions fell faster and further than drilling activity. As a result, the excess backlog of wells in the Permian Basin sky-rocketed from ~350 wells in February to over 2,300 wells by May. Depending on the location of these wells and timing of completions, there is ~1.8 MMb/d of production potential.
https://btuanalytics.com/crude-oil-pricing/1-8-mmb-d-permian-production-potential-from-ducs/
https://btuanalytics.com/crude-oil-pricing/1-8-mmb-d-permian-production-potential-from-ducs/
Seeking Alpha - Oil: The Market Is In For A Bit Of A Surprise If It Didn't Price In The Incoming Draws
Summary
- WTI finally broke above $42 resistance level after 3 failed attempts.
- Technical analysts suggest this move could push prices to $49/bbl.
- On the fundamental side, while we argued that prices could have already priced in the draws, today's move suggest otherwise. If so, then, the market is in for a surprise.
- We currently have US crude storage falling below ~500 million bbls by the end of August.
- In addition, US oil production has disappointed to the downside. July average is around ~11.3 mb/d, but our leading indicator indicates that August may actually move lower despite more shut-in production return.
World Oil - Range Resources sells Louisiana shale assets at dime-on-the-dollar valuation
HOUSTON (Bloomberg) --Range Resources Corp. is selling its Louisiana shale fields for about one-10th of what it paid for them just four years ago as depressed natural gas prices hammered the heavily indebted driller.
Range agreed to sell the assets acquired in its 2016 takeover of Memorial Resource Development Corp. to Castleton Resources LLC for $245 million, according to statements by both companies Monday. Range stands to reap an additional $90 million in the future, contingent on higher commodity prices.
The $335 million potential total value compares to the approximately $3.3 billion Range originally paid in an all-stock deal for the fields. The biggest-ever deal for Range turned into a bust when the company’s geologists and engineers soured on the quality of the rocks in early 2018.
https://www.worldoil.com//news/2020/8/4/range-resources-sells-louisiana-shale-assets-at-dime-on-the-dollar-valuation?id=31307113
Range agreed to sell the assets acquired in its 2016 takeover of Memorial Resource Development Corp. to Castleton Resources LLC for $245 million, according to statements by both companies Monday. Range stands to reap an additional $90 million in the future, contingent on higher commodity prices.
The $335 million potential total value compares to the approximately $3.3 billion Range originally paid in an all-stock deal for the fields. The biggest-ever deal for Range turned into a bust when the company’s geologists and engineers soured on the quality of the rocks in early 2018.
https://www.worldoil.com//news/2020/8/4/range-resources-sells-louisiana-shale-assets-at-dime-on-the-dollar-valuation?id=31307113
Monday, August 3, 2020
World Oil - Quarterly losses are a reality check for shale producers
HOUSTON (Bloomberg) --Three shale explorers signaled a grim rest of 2020 for the U.S. oil patch just hours after President Donald Trump arrived in the Permian Basin championing “American energy dominance.”
In second-quarter earnings reports published after the close of trading in New York, QEP Resources Inc. cut its production outlook, WPX Energy Inc. further reduced its capital spending budget, while Concho Resources Inc. stuck with plans to keep crude volumes flat from 2019 levels, ending years of growth. QEP shares dipped as much as 20%.
It’s a downbeat reality check for the industry, which is emerging from the worst oil price crash in a generation and another sign that the decade-long, debt-fueled surge of production growth is over.
https://www.worldoil.com//news/2020/7/30/quarterly-losses-are-a-reality-check-for-shale-producers
In second-quarter earnings reports published after the close of trading in New York, QEP Resources Inc. cut its production outlook, WPX Energy Inc. further reduced its capital spending budget, while Concho Resources Inc. stuck with plans to keep crude volumes flat from 2019 levels, ending years of growth. QEP shares dipped as much as 20%.
It’s a downbeat reality check for the industry, which is emerging from the worst oil price crash in a generation and another sign that the decade-long, debt-fueled surge of production growth is over.
https://www.worldoil.com//news/2020/7/30/quarterly-losses-are-a-reality-check-for-shale-producers
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